Sunday, June 25, 2017

Why the World Should Fear Iran's Missiles


This week, the Islamic Republic of Iran followed the lead of Russia and the United States in using long-range missiles to carry out attacks in Syria. The launch of six Zulfiqar short-range ballistic missiles at targets in Syria highlighted Iran’s missile program. Iran’s program is four decades old, and traces back to the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq War and the country’s rivalry with the state of Israel. Iran’s missiles have slowly but surely gained greater accuracy and longer ranges, posing a problem for the entire region.
Iran’s interest in ballistic missiles has its origins in the 1980–88 Iran-Iraq War. Like the rest of the Iranian Armed Forces, the Iranian Air Force was crippled by postrevolution purges. Although numerically and technologically superior to the Iraqi Air Force, Iran was unable to achieve air superiority and unable to accurately strike targets deep within Iraq.
In response, Iran purchased a number of Soviet R-17 (“Scud B”) short-range ballistic missiles from the Libyan government. These strikes, as well as retaliatory strikes by Iraqi ballistic missiles, constituted the so-called “War of the Cities.” The lack of accuracy of the missiles made cities the easiest targets, and both Iranian and Iraqi civilians bore the brunt of the crude missile campaign.
The wartime need for ballistic missiles, as well as Iran’s historical enmity with Israel, led Iran to develop its own missile industry. The first missiles were copies of existing Scud missiles. The Shahab (“Shooting Star”)-1 missile is based on the Scud-B; the Nuclear Threat Initiative estimates Iran maintains an inventory of two to three hundred missiles. The liquid-fueled Shahab-1 can loft a two-thousand-pound high-explosive or chemical warhead up to 186 miles, but like the original Scud-B, its accuracy is lacking. Just half of the warheads from a Shahab-1 would land within a half mile of the target—the rest landing even farther away. Another version, Shahab-2, has a range of 310 miles. Both versions are likely being phased out in favor of a new generation of solid-fuel rockets.
A third missile, Shahab-3, is actually a variant of North Korea’s Nodong-1 missile. Also developed from the Scud, the Nodong-1 has its origins in Pyongyang’s desire to hit U.S. bases in Japan from the Korean Peninsula. There are differing claims to the distance the Shahab-3 can deliver payloads. The Nuclear Threat Initiative states that it has a maximum range of 621 miles, which falls short of the Nodong-1’s range. The Center for Strategic and International Studies states that the Nodong-1 has a range of 932 miles, but credits the Shahab-3 a range of 1,242 miles, a significant improvement.
While the Nodong-1/Shahab-3 offers greater range than previous missiles, it is miserably inaccurate, with half of warheads expected to fall within 1.5 miles of the target and the other half even farther away. The first Iranian test of the Shahab-3 was in 1998, and the missile was declared operational in 2003. Arms-control experts theorize North Korea sold Iran a complete Nodong assembly line, while others believe Iran received approximately 150 missiles in return for financing development of the missile.
The Shahab-3 has spawned at least one variant, the Ghadr-1, which has a slightly shorter range but is reportedly much more accurate, to within six hundred feet. A new warhead developed for both missiles, known as Emad, appears to bring even greater stability, maneuverability and accuracy to Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles.
Iranian missile development took a giant leap with the fielding of the Sejil medium-range missile. Unlike previous liquid-fueled missiles, the solid-fueled Sejil does not have to be fueled before launch and can be stored ready to fire. A Sejil missile in the field also does not need a telltale convoy of refueling vehicles that can be spotted by enemy forces. Iran’s solid-fuel expertise is thought to have come from China in a late 1980s technology transfer.
First tested in 2008, the Sejil carries a one- to two-thousand-pound warhead and has a range identical to the older Shahab-3. Sejil may in fact be a replacement for the older missile. While the Sejil’s accuracy is unknown, it could hardly be worse than its liquid-fueled predecessor. There are unconfirmed reports of longer-range variants. A missile named Sejil-2 was reportedly tested in 2009, and a three-stage Sejil-3 with a 2,400-mile range is reportedly in development.

IRAN TAKES ACTION AGAINST INCREASING POPULARITY OF MEK


During the summer of 1988 in Iran, some 30,000 political prisoners, the majority of whom were MEK members or sympathizers, were executed. The year is the 29th anniversary of the 1988 massacre.

Last summer, an audio tape was published by the son of Hossein-Ali Montazeri. August 9, 2016, the recording was heard for the first time, and on it Khomeini’s former heir can be heard telling a meeting of members of the “Death Committee” that they are carrying out a crime against humanity, 28 years ago, on August 15, 1988.
The tape sent shockwaves through Iran, as it adds new knowledge of the breadth and scope of the massacre and confirms that it involved the highest levels of leadership. For more than two decades silence has been imposed in regards to the massacre because, you see, Iranian leaders who held positions of power at that time, members of the notorious Death Commission, are still in leadership positions today.
They have never faced justice for committing this horrific crime against humanity.

Hossein-Ali Montazeri, who was subsequently dismissed as the heir by Khomeini, and subsequently spent the rest of his life under house arrest, for the very remarks heard on the audio tape, tells members of the Death Commission, who include Hossein-Ali Nayyeri, the sharia judge, Morteza Eshraqi, the prosecutor, Ebrahim Raeesi, deputy prosecutor, and Mostafa Pourmohammadi, representative of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), “The greatest crime committed during the reign of the Islamic Republic, for which history will condemn us, has been committed by you. Your (names) will in the future be etched in the annals of history as criminals.” He adds, “Executing these people while there have been no new activities (by the prisoners) means that … the entire judicial system has been at fault.”
Regarding the recent revelations, Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the Iranian Resistance, described the audio recording as an historical document. Mrs. Rajavi said that the recording attests to the strength of the Mojahedin (PMOI/MEK) political prisoners’ rejection of surrender, to their admirable allegiance and the perseverance of their commitment to the Iranian people. She called the recording “irrefutable evidence that leaders of the mullahs are responsible for crimes against humanity and the unprecedented genocide.”
Following release of the audio tapes, the Iranian Resistance initiated a worldwide movement, and during the last 10 months both inside and outside Iran, have created a huge momentum against the ongoing violation of human rights in Iran.
In February 2017, Justice for the Victims of the 1988 Massacre in Iran (JVMI), published the details of numerous mass graves in Iran. Page 349 of the JVMI report, “Inquiry into the 1988 mass executions in Iran”, refers to the mass grave near the Behesht Abad Cemetery in Ahvaz. Then, Amnesty International published a news item on June 1, 2017 on its website, warning that the Iranian authorities may be attempting to desecrate a mass grave site in Ahvaz, southern Iran in an effort to destroy vital forensic evidence, and sabotage opportunities for justice for the mass killings of political prisoners that took place across the country in 1988.

While Iranian officials try to counter the effects of these revelations, growing sympathy for MEK members who were the main victims of this horrible massacre, and increased popularity of the opposition movement have resulted, instead.
In recent months, following a report published by The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence, concerning the power and progress of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI or MEK), officials have admitted the Iranian youth has tended toward the attraction of the Mojahedin (MEK), as well as the prestige of the Mojahedin at home and at the international level.
The director general of a state funded Habilian Foundation, Hashemi Nejad, stated, “We have held 300 exhibitions against MEK in Iran up to now. These days, MEK is getting recognized as a leading institute in Human Rights,” He added that the duty now, is to discuss Human Rights issues against MEK since Iranian youths are the target of MEK. According to Intelligence Ministry officials, a detailed research report against MEK, of more than 8,000 words, has recently been published in the Habilian website, affiliated to the Ministry.
“The Mojahedin Organization (MEK) is after… total change and removal of the Velayat-e faqih system in Iran…,” states the report.
It also discusses the role of MEK in exposing the Iranian’s administration secret projects to obtain nuclear weapons, saying, “Following exposure of the issue (nuclear weapons program), the media published reports in this regard and this was the beginning of a major crisis that resulted in the adoption of several resolutions and sanctions with the devastating effects which are still continuing.”
The Intelligence Ministry reminded the public of the role of Mojahedin in the 2009 uprising, and admitted its fear of uprisings and revolts being tied to the nationwide resistance and to the Mojahedin, and wrote, “Mojahedin (MEK)… were still looking for an opportunity to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran, until the beginning of 2009 elections followed by the street riots, the group seized the opportunity and issued statements and messages to prepare the ground for achieving their goals… One of the goals (of the MEK) in 2009 election was to remove Velayat-e faqih and change the regime.”
The Mojahedin’s advancement in the international arena was also pointed out, “…In addition, members of the (MEK) organization hold meetings in France from time to time… In the recent years, the Mojahedin organization has held campaign and meetings in every international events and communities, including the United Nations, against the country and the system.”
The report concluded by describing the methods to confront the MEK, such as, “Introducing and fully identifying the (MEK) organization (i.e. meaning distorting the image of the organization)… to prevent, in this way, people and new members from joining the organization which would lead to increased damage to the system,” and added, “Strengthening the borders and increasing the country’s defense power: By this action, we can prevent entry of the MEK members into the country… and so we will be able to avert and ward off the enemies of the system outside the borders.”
These confessions appear to show the power, in regards to social as well as popular status, of the MEK and NCRI are welcomed by the Iranian youth.
After the Mullahs were unable the failure to destroy the MEK by siege and missile attacks, and the Mojahedin were able to maintain the integrity of their organization and transfer themselves to a safe place, the regime is frightened, and they are trying to frighten the Iranian people with warnings about the danger of Mojahedin.
In another report, published in Habilian site, the Intelligence Ministry stated that intellectual (thought) danger of unarmed MEK is much more than the threat of armed MEK.
In an interview with Vatan Emrouz, September 4, 2016, the secretary general of the Habilian Institution, which is a branch of the Intelligence Ministry, Mohammad Javad Hashemi Nejad, had previously warned about the danger of the MEK revelations, stating, “Mojahedin in the areas of human rights and related issues are present in the European Parliament and in the U.S. and any places where there is opposition to the system …MEK is a dangerous force…”
This sense of danger may be attributed to the fact that the surge in power of the MEK has coincided with the divisiveness within the Velayat-e faqih system, as well as the unrest, in the form of vastly increasing protests and demonstrations, in Iranian society.
The assistance to the West by the MEK had assisted the West in revealing Iran’s secret nuclear missiles programme was also highlighted. To stop the youth from joining the MEK, the Regime attempts to present a twisted view of the Resistance Forces, which is the reason behind the exhibitions and movies like “Magaraye Nimroz”, a film by state run media, on screen now.
However, in the midst of the propaganda and hyperbole surrounding it, a political analyst attacked the film. Sadegh Zibakalam, a political science professor at Tehran State University, and an associate of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was also responsible for dispatching of university students to war with Iraq during 80’s, criticized the film. He said, “The events in this movie are not reciting the reality of what has happened between the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and MEK in that era, we are condemning MEK, but have never asked why MEK fought back? As if they did it for no reason! This film is trying to imply that IRGC agents were kind and caring for humanity, (this is not true) we killed thousands of MEK members without any trials, just like the killers of Imam Hossain (a 7th century revolutionary Shiite leader who made the ultimate sacrifice for social justice in the face of corruption and tyranny).” Zibakalam’s confession clearly shows the ineffectiveness of such desperate moves to demonize the MEK.
In their recap of the report, The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) wrote, “The truth is that after the Mullahs were unable to destroy the MEK by inhumane siege and missile attacks, and Mojahedin were able to maintain the integrity of their organization and transfer themselves to a safe place, the Mullahs are frightened now. That is why the mullahs regularly yowl and whimper about the danger of MEK.”

“This fear and sense of danger is particularly due to the fact that the power and cohesion of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran has coincided on the one hand with the weakness and ultimate decay of the Velayat-e faqih system and the crises engulfing the ruling class, and on the other hand by the fact that Iran’s society is on the verge of explosion and ready for uprising and revolution and is only waiting for a spark,” they wrote.